Post Covid, Let’s Decarbonise
Azure. That’s the colour of the sky most Indian cities are witnessing as we continue to remain in a virtual shutdown. And clean air. Both an outcome of significantly lowered industrial activity. These will likely remain anomalies unless India takes strides away from fossil fuel and towards renewable energy in the very near future.
Fossil fuels are highly polluting and cost countries lives, and the economies precious GDP. As a matter of fact, air pollution takes more lives annually than the novel coronavirus is expected to, going by even the worst projections. And so strange as it might sound, more lives are likely to be saved with reduced exposure to pollutants in the air than the virus itself will claim. All this in addition to the long-term costs that climate induced change will cause.
According to the IQAir AirVisual’s 2019 World Air Quality Report, 21 of the world’s 30 cities with the worst air pollution are in India. These include the top six of the top 10. Going by the Global Alliance on Health and Pollution, a staggering 15% of the deaths globally are a result of air pollution, with India leading at 1.2 million deaths annually. And in the light of the novel coronavirus a recent Harvard study highlights the fact that individuals exposed to high levels of air pollution are likely to be more susceptible to Covid-19. This will only make matters worse for India given where it stands on healthcare in general.
The economic costs of air pollution were pegged at US$2.9 trillion globally in 2018. Closer home, recent estimates suggest, India loses 5.4 percent of its GDP to air pollution annually, a huge cost for any economy, especially a limping one such as ours. While a range of factors contribute to poor air quality including vehicular pollution, construction dust, the seasonal crop burning in pockets of north India, the burning of fossil fuels for power adds significantly to that pie.
Hopefully, we can relegate this to the pre-Corona ‘era’. But that would depend on our willingness to give up our addiction to coal.
Since March 24, when India moved into a lockdown, pollution levels have been at the lowest ever recorded. This can be attributed to the fact that there is no vehicular movement, close to no industrial activity and reduced need for power. In the last few weeks, eleven of the 12 coal-fired plants situated within a 300 kms of New Delhi have been shut down owing to the lack of demand. Eight units of the Kothagudem Thermal Power Plants have been shut down permanently.
The trends in reduced levels of pollution and the sunset on the fossil fuel industry are seen globally as well. Bangkok, Beijing, São Paulo and Bogotá among other cities have also experienced a sharp decline in air pollution levels since the lockdown was announced in the respective countries.
Looking at the long-term. Globally over a 100 financial institutions have turned their backs on coal. And few biggies including Harvard have finally jumped on the divestment bandwagon. While Donald Trump has not demonstrated his ability to look beyond fossil fuels, US based BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager has made a historic shift in its approach by making climate change key to its decision making. The winds of change are palpable. Much of Europe is also quickly divesting from what was once considered ‘black gold’. Given this trajectory, Ayala Corp., the Philippines’ oldest conglomerate, has gone public about its intention to divest from coal by 2030.
India has spoken at length about the need to green economies and committed to solar power. It has demonstrated its commitment towards large solar projects and taken some feeble steps in the direction of decentralised solar such as in the case of the recently announced KUSUM scheme wherein farmers can generate solar in their own fields and also give back to limping DISCOMS. However, it has also made some contradictory moves by increasing subsidies for oil and gas over the last two years while reducing that on renewable energy.
The current imperative of governments, and understandably so, is to ensure they employ the best strategies, regional and federal, to minimise the casualties from Covid-19. The priority for governments is also to inject adequate financial stimulus to help economies recover from this jolt. The question is will economies including India use this slump as an excuse to push for growth at any and all costs, a short-sighted strategy that will push us back to the tunnel with no light at the end of it. Or will we use this opportunity to mitigate economic losses and loss to human life from climate induced disasters by making those necessary investments in renewable sources of energy.
Where we end up in the next decade is a function of the steps and detours we take today. Let’s make sure we don’t go back to a status quo ante.
Shivani Shah is a student of Public Policy at The Takshashila Institution, Bangalore and can be found on Twitter at @shivanishah
